On October 17, the 6th China-Korea Automobile Industry Development Seminar jointly organized by the Ministry of Information and Industrial Development of the National Information Center and Hyundai Motor (China) Investment Co., Ltd. was held in Beijing. As a strategic cooperative media, Huanqiu Automobile participated in the live broadcast report.
The China-Korea Auto Industry Development Seminar has been held for six consecutive times since 2013, and it has become an important platform for exchanges between China and South Korea's auto industry. In recent years, my country's new energy vehicle market has also grown to a million scale, but pure electric vehicles still face problems such as high battery costs, short driving range and inconvenient charging. South Korea's Hyundai Motor Company's fuel cell vehicles are at an internationally leading level, and it is one of the few companies in the first batch to achieve small-scale mass production of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. At this forum, Chinese and Korean experts will share their experience in the research and development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle technology, the construction of the mass production system of spare parts, and the utilization of hydrogen energy.
The following is the speech record of Zhang Jinhua, the executive vice chairman and secretary-general of the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers:
Dear leaders, experts, and friends, good morning! Thank you very much for the invitation of Director Xu. Today is the topic composition. I have the opportunity to have an exchange with you on the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China. I will introduce from three aspects.
The first is experience. South Korea has done a very systematic and comprehensive plan for the development of hydrogen energy and fuel cells. China's new energy vehicles are developing relatively fast, and the system construction is relatively comprehensive. However, there is a big gap between the two countries' battery plans for hydrogen energy. South Korea considers the source and supply of hydrogen, product reserves, infrastructure construction and other factors from the system construction. Secondly, hydrogen fuel is not only used in automobiles, but also used for multiple purposes. The planning of the entire hydrogen energy society, It is very inspiring for the development of China's hydrogen energy vehicles.
The development based on the hydrogen economy was first proposed by the United States and divided into four stages, including the preparation of technology research and development, market preparation, infrastructure construction, and comprehensive marketization. Once proposed, the government and industry have fully participated in coordination. Advance.
The field of hydrogen energy and fuel cells has received government support, with an investment of more than RMB 10 billion. Such a large investment, thanks to the FCAR plan, was the promotion of hydrogen energy economy during the Clinton era, with the focus on hybrid power systems to improve fuel economy. During the Bush era, the focus was on promoting hydrogen energy, and the FCAR program was focused on hydrogen fuel cells. It can be said that the United States is still leading in the field of hydrogen energy technology. In addition, he uses subsidies in the form of fiscal and taxation support policies, which is also an experience worth learning from our country.
Let's talk about Japan. It can be said that Japan was the first to propose the establishment of a hydrogen energy society and a vision for the development of a hydrogen energy society in the future. The 2020 Tokyo Olympics may fully demonstrate the technology of this hydrogen energy society. Many strategies in Japan have proposed such strategies as hydrogen economy and hydrogen energy society. The future hydrogen energy economy and society may proceed from four aspects:
1. Make full use of renewable energy to realize low-cost hydrogen production; 2. Efficient storage, transportation and supply and application in multiple fields. In fact, the information we are referring to is more about cars. In fact, it is now more popular and the most popular is household heat supply.
At the same time, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan released the "Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Technology Roadmap", which proposed a three-step strategy.
1. Expand the application of fuel cells and form the world's leading hydrogen energy and fuel cell markets. He uses applications to ensure the industrialization of technology.
2. Regarding the supply of hydrogen, hydrogen can generate electricity, and hydrogen can supply such a system.
3. Renewable, and finally realize the "zero-carbon" hydrogen energy supply, which solves Japan's energy supply to a certain extent and is renewable.
Not only that, but also put forward clear goals for the household infrastructure of fuel cell vehicles, and put forward very ambitious goals for 2020, 2025, and 2035.
Japan develops hydrogen energy and promotes the development of hydrogen fuel cells. One institution is the new energy and industrial technology research and development institution, NEDO, which provides a platform for the development of hydrogen energy. NEDO also played an important role in the R&D organization, cross-industry services and industrial synergy of automotive energy. At the same time, it is also the roadmap led by NEDO, the implementation of national plans, and the realization of cross-industry collaboration. There is no such institution in China yet. This year, the Japanese government is also vigorously supporting the development of hydrogen fuel cells, investing 3 billion yuan (RMB) to invest in various fields. With the support of governments of various countries, companies represented by Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai, after years of hard work, now the overall evaluation of fuel cell technology is basically mature. In other words, the commercialized technology is basically mature. Now it is more important to reach the scale so that it faces the supporting application environment of the entire infrastructure. In addition to the passenger vehicle field, hydrogen energy also has development in the commercial vehicle field. Especially in the application of forklifts.
In addition to the past few years just mentioned, major domestic and international automotive multinational companies now have or basically have this kind of products, as long as the environment is available, they will be quickly introduced to the market. At many international car exhibitions this year, car companies have launched commercial and market-oriented fuel cell products, including Mercedes-Benz and BMW.
The construction of hydrogen refueling stations around the world has been very fast in recent years, and the distribution of hydrogen refueling stations also has distinctive characteristics. Some are distributed in developed automobile or economically developed countries, with the largest number being Japan, the United States, Germany, and South Korea. Some of them are in areas rich in renewable energy, such as Northern Europe, Norway, Denmark, and Sweden.
The second aspect is a brief report on the relevant situation in our country. Everyone is familiar with the world-renowned achievements in the development of my country's new energy vehicles, especially the sales volume and holdings. The growth rate of my country's automobile market has slowed down this year, and it has experienced negative growth in recent months. New energy vehicles continue to grow rapidly. According to the China Automobile Association, there are more than 120,000 new energy vehicles in a single month, nearly 130,000 vehicles, with a growth rate of 60% and 70%. There should be no problem with the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles exceeding 1 million this year, between 1 million and 1.1 million. In time, the growth rate should also be 60% and 70%. It should be no problem to reach sales of 2 million vehicles in 2020, and the goal of exceeding 5 million vehicles.
At this stage, my country’s new energy vehicle sales as a percentage of total sales are also growing very fast. Last year it was nearly 2.7%. From January to August it should be close to 3%, and now it should exceed 3%. At present, it is still pure electric, and more than 80% are pure electric. Therefore, the development of fuel cells in China is very important.
The first is the energy structure, the popularization of electrification in the power system, and the full electrification of vehicle fuel cells. Therefore, since 2016, many national ministries and commissions, and the State Council has issued many plans, plans, and actions, all of which regard hydrogen fuel cells as an important part. From the "Energy Technology Revolution and Innovation Action Plan", the innovation-driven development strategy, the "13th Five-Year" International Science and Technology Innovation Plan, the planning of strategic emerging industries, and the planning of the R&D industrialization and application of hydrogen energy and hydrogen fuel cells are important components. section.
In fact, starting from my country's development of new energy vehicles, fuel cells have been used as an important part of new energy vehicles in planning. What everyone is familiar with is the "three verticals and three horizontals". At least during the Tenth Five-Year Plan, fuel cells are the top priority. In fact, during the Tenth Five-Year Plan, a new economy was proposed and the focus was on the development of fuel cells. However, because the maturity of the technology is relatively slow, it can be said that pure electric and plug-in hybrid are mainly supported in the "Eleventh Five-Year" and "Twelfth Five-Year" countries.
If the development of fuel cell vehicles in China is divided into five years, it can be said that the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" is still basic research and development. At that time, the basic research and development of universities and research institutions were mainly used. The "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" combined the two on the basis of basic research and development. Major international events, the 2008 Beijing Olympics, and the 2010 Shanghai World Expo promoted some small-scale production applications, technical inspections, etc. At that time, dozens of fuel cells were used to provide Olympic services for the Olympics. There are about 200 fuel cells serving the Expo. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" vehicle companies have entered one after another, represented by Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation. The entry of bus companies represented by Yutong is a real industrialization plan and preparation for productization. Since 2016, the parts represented by buses and logistics vehicles, and passenger vehicles such as SAIC have been introduced to the market one after another. The "13th Five-Year Plan" is also a breakthrough in the industrialization of China's fuel cell vehicle development.
After nearly 20 years, with the joint support of the industry, fuel cells have made some important progress in technology and industrialization. From the power density of the stack, we are now developing products of nearly 3,000 watts per liter. Some of the materials, devices, bipolar plates, and membranes are still using foreign technology. For 220 and 230, which are really industrialized and highly autonomous, there is also a certain gap in low-temperature start-up. There is no problem with storage at minus 30 degrees, and the start-up should still be around minus 20 degrees. Like Hyundai, Toyota, and Honda, storage and start-up are basically minus 30 degrees. The cycle life is actually now that we can achieve mass production, and the industrialization is still around 3,000 to 4,000, so there is indeed a gap in the life span.
The domestic research and development of metal bipolar plates has made great breakthroughs, especially the R&D team of Shanghai Jiaotong University. The technology of metal bipolar plates from research and development to industrialization can be said to have achieved results, and products and industrial technology products have reached the international advanced level. . For the research and development of membrane electrodes, our platinum load continues to drop and the cost continues to drop. This is also relatively good.
In the fuel cell vehicle industry, our passenger cars are mainly SAIC, with two series of models, Roewe 750 and 950. The other one that is currently the largest is the fuel cell. SAIC Maxus also did it in 2018. It should be said that this is a very good development. There are more commercial vehicles, such as Yutong, Foton and many other bus factories. The application demonstration of the third phase of fuel cell buses supported by the Global Environment Facility has promoted many car manufacturers to carry out product research and development. With the development of the past two years, our logistics vehicles have developed very fast. Many commercial vehicle companies have launched medium and light fuel cell logistics vehicles and commercial vehicles, which are the largest in the current inventory.
In terms of policy, Mr. Zhang also said in his speech just now that fuel cell subsidies have started from 2009 to the present. Basically, we say that China’s fiscal and taxation policies will be fully withdrawn in 2020, but the use of fuel cell subsidies will not be the earliest. Many, there is some support at the hydrogen refueling station, and it should be restarted recently.
From the industrialization stage of China's fuel cell industry, from the perspective of the industry, the biggest recent development, a new development worthy of attention, is the transformation of fuel cells as a power system, such as Weichai, represented by Weichai. The upgrade strategy has been deployed and arranged. Weichai plans to use about RMB 5 billion in recent years to promote the development and industrialization of fuel cells, especially fuel cell power systems for commercial vehicles. This is not only a strategy, but also a plan under implementation. . We are currently working with Bosch and Ballard for system integration and strategic cooperation with global suppliers.
In particular, Weichai has driven many other fuel suppliers like Yuchai to invest in this field. This should be said to be very efficient. Weichai now has part of the development of complete vehicles due to the reorganization of the entire industry. This is also their early development advantage. I have something for myself. This is because I think the acceleration of fuel cell technology and industrialization will be very obvious.
By the end of last year, our total domestic fuel cell holdings were about 1,000, the most important being last year. The growth rate is now very obvious, mainly logistics vehicles. The hydrogen refueling stations have also been very fast in recent years. There are only a few hydrogen refueling stations in the long term. In the past year or two, we have built more than 10 or more than 20 hydrogen refueling stations. By 2020, we may have hundreds of hydrogen refueling stations in just a few years. The growth rate is very fast. The hydrogen refueling stations are basically distributed in such several regions, the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and Pearl River Delta, basically in these three regions.
Technically speaking, in recent years, a relatively large-scale and characteristic power system with "electric-electric hybrid" has been formed, which is a hybrid of fuel cells and batteries. This is currently more in line with the development level of fuel cells and also in line with fuel cell technology. Features, especially on commercial vehicles. From 2015 and 2016, to the current development of hydrogen fuel cells, our local enthusiasm is higher than that of the central government. Many of them are R&D and application development promoted by localities.
A typical example is Rugao in Jiangsu, which is a "hydrogen economy demonstration city" of the United Nations. Now several cities, including Nantong, Yancheng, and Suzhou, support hydrogen fuel cells as a strategic industry. Foshan's Yunhu and Nanhai promote the application in the Pearl River Delta. Beijing and Zhangjiakou, one is the 2008 Olympic demonstration, the other is the 2022 Winter Olympics, and now the Winter Olympics transportation proposes zero emissions, zero-emission venues should be possible, long-distance transportation besides rail is fuel cell There must be a solution. At the 2022 Winter Olympics, it is possible that the application of hydrogen fuel cells in the transportation field will be demonstrated on a very large scale.
Everyone in Shanghai knows that the "Shanghai Fuel Cell Vehicle Development Plan" was first released at our local level. This has also led to the introduction of many of our provincial and municipal local plans. Since last year, it can be said that the main thing is Weichai. Because of the promotion of strategic transformation, the entire Shandong Province has proposed the "Hydrogen Valley" plan, and the "Hydrogen Valley" will be established with three places in Shandong Province as the center, Qingdao, Jinan, and Weihai. Focus on the application. Now Shandong Province has become a province-wide strategy, and the promotion is very fast, from the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, the preparation of products and the planning of application areas, the progress is very fast. Datong also proposed the "Hydrogen Energy Capital" because it is also an industrial transformation. Coal-derived gas, coal-derived gas in 2019, is a relatively integrated concept at this stage. Hubei has also proposed the hydrogen energy capital.
Finally, I want to make a simple outlook for the future. According to the retreat plan of new energy vehicles, because of the relatively large scale, everyone is worried that it is mainly driven by government policies. In fact, after our policy retreats in the past two years, this kind of market-driven motivation should be said to be more and more ideal. There is sufficient time from the product structure. Everyone is worried about whether our new energy development will fall off a cliff or will be interrupted after the decline in 2020. I personally think that it will not. On the one hand, the market is already playing a role in the middle. The cost of our batteries has dropped significantly, and the investment in miniaturized products and short and medium mileage will continue to increase in 2020.
The second very important new energy vehicle "double points" policy is a constraint. It is impossible to revert to establishing new energy vehicles. Because this is a rigid requirement and a binding requirement, I think the development of new energy vehicles in our country The trend is likely to be reversed.
Hydrogen fuel cells will play an increasingly important role in the transition to electrification. Electrification is comprehensive electrification, covering pure electric, plug-in and fuel cells. Just now, General Manager Wang Xiufu said that hydrogen energy is the final solution. I think it may be too early to say this, but at least pure electric, plug-in, and fuel cells are suitable for technologies in different fields according to their technical characteristics for a long time. solution.
Now that my country is implementing the blue sky defense war, the focus should be on the electric transformation of commercial vehicles, and the electric transformation of commercial vehicles with a relatively large contribution to the displacement. I strongly recommend that the electric transformation of commercial vehicles should fully consider the rationality of this technology and economics. The rationality of the battery cannot be simply used. I think it is possible that the fuel cell will play an important role in the middle.
Our country still has several advantages in the development of fuel cells: one is that we promote new energy vehicles, and the experience accumulated in the promotion of new energy vehicles mainly based on electric vehicles is worth learning.
On the other hand, we are rich in hydrogen resources. Our low-cost industrial by-product hydrogen can meet the operation of tens of millions of vehicles, and our Qiguang can still meet the supply of millions of large and small vehicles. The market in this area is huge, and our policy tools are also relatively large. More.
Last year, we also organized a systematic research on fuel cell system policies and put forward several suggestions. Some of these suggestions have been made with the central ministries and commissions. Some have been reflected in plans and plans, and some may be in the next step. It’s reflected in the actions. We mention the following aspects:
The first aspect: key technological breakthroughs, for China, and for the world, there is still a need to improve this technological level. For China, in addition to technologies such as stack systems, it is more important to solve some basic material technologies. , There are related auxiliary accessories, circulating pumps, and high-pressure valves, which need to be solved systematically.
The science and technology plan being implemented by countries in the "13th Five-Year Plan" places hydrogen fuel cells as a focus. In the original plan, the original plan was 6 billion yuan, and later about 3 billion yuan is being implemented, and about a quarter is invested in the new fuel cell plan. In the near future, all the follow-up money for the implementation of the entire plan will be invested in fuel cells. I think the total investment now is about 1 billion, but it is still very weak compared with foreign countries. This time, the main focus is on solving some foundations, some fuel accessories, and foundations.
The second aspect: strengthen the industrial chain and grasp the shortcomings. I just mentioned our shortcomings, of course the shortcomings are comprehensive, but the focus is on basic materials and auxiliary accessories. Of course, there is still a shortage of technologies related to hydrogen supply. This is from the perspective of the industrial chain. Because the changes in the past one or two years have been very large, I think at least we are basically comprehensive now, but the level is not good enough.
The third aspect: Promote demonstration applications and proceed in an orderly manner. We hope not to push it like electric vehicles, but it is possible that the development of hydrogen fuel cells will be promoted soon. It may be based on the perspective of resource generation. At the beginning, we still identified a few areas with foundations, conditions, and willingness. Summary Experience pushes again.
At the production level, I just said that infrastructure and policy subsidies should be connected. The second may require the US method to speed up subsidies according to a certain proportion, limit the maximum production, and provide certain subsidies only when the maximum production range is met, and greatly reduce the cost of hydrogen supply.
The fourth aspect: scientifically plan the layout and establish a hydrogen energy supply system. For us, resources are not a problem, but now that regulations are an important factor. This time our judicial statement said, I think it is possible that there will be major changes in the next step. I think many problems have been solved in infrastructure construction. The first is to turn hydrogen into fuel. The second is that hydrogen and oil and gas can be jointly built. Hydrogen stations and oil and gas are jointly built. This is basically the case abroad. As long as these two breakthroughs are made, our infrastructure construction will have no problems.
We are now cooperating with several cities in Shanghai, Nantong, Rugao, and Yancheng to promote the development of the Yangtze River Delta Corridor and the integration of the hydrogen economy. We think that first of all, several cities in the Yangtze River Delta have the will to release plans separately. We organize these to enable these regions to build some unified plans in the fields of infrastructure construction and hydrogen construction and application. First of all, a small application environment is formed in the Yangtze River Delta, which is also based on some experience in laws and policies, so as to provide help in promoting other regions of the country. To establish a plan in the Yangtze River Delta, first connect these cities according to the expressway, use the expressway first, and then expand the expressway to form a regional linkage.
Fifth aspect: Promote internationalization and integrate global resources. I have been telling many vehicle companies that fuel cell vehicles cannot be used first in China, and it is difficult to push them globally, because they require a strong infrastructure, including relatively strong policy promotion. That is to say, if the application of hydrogen fuel cells in the transportation field cannot become mainstream in China, it will be difficult to become mainstream in the world. China has a huge market, so we hope that we can concentrate global resources to take the lead in promoting the formation of a large-scale application of fuel cells in China, so as to help the world or the establishment of fuel cell technology routes in the transportation field.
From this perspective, we also established a global hydrogen fuel cell association with related organizations last year. Through this association, hydrogen energy, automobiles, and application research and development can communicate and cooperate on this platform to promote the application of hydrogen fuel cells. We are now entering this association with major domestic and foreign companies and research institutions. We are currently in the process of applying for approval.
Sixth aspect: Standards and regulations. In fact, I think that the infrastructure of hydrogen supply is not enough. Now it is 3 hydrogen bottles and 4 hydrogen bottles. Now it has been increased from 35 to 70 MPa. This pressure problem has been solved. As for whether 70 MPa is in 3 hydrogen bottles or 4 hydrogen bottles, in essence, companies now want us to use 4 Hydrogen cylinders, if there is no technical safety problem, use 4 hydrogen cylinders. This is not the core, and the most important thing is the supply of hydrogen.
Public propaganda is also very important. The main reason for the low utilization rate is hydrogen. Our key minority still has doubts about whether hydrogen is safe or not, but there is sufficient evidence that hydrogen is still very safe as an energy application. There is scientific basis, but this requires popular science and propaganda to let more ordinary people understand this knowledge. Based on this understanding and the cities of the Yangtze River Delta, we have recently launched a relatively large-scale hydrogen fuel cell. The propaganda and education activities are actually popular science propaganda. Going to these three cities, let these cities organize to introduce and show the safety of hydrogen to enterprises, including live broadcast, which has a great impact. It is very rare for millions of people to participate in and learn about popular science.
Seventh aspect: Expand the application fields of hydrogen fuel cells. Just now, the Korean experts also said very well. We just think of one field. If this function can be popularized, it can actually be used in many fields, such as homes, and some fixed locations, which are very ready-made fields. If we use The policy links it up and may be used for the entire promotion and application. That’s all I have communicated with you today. Please criticize and correct any errors. Thank you!
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