In the first half of 2009 alone, China's LED production has exceeded 20 billion yuan, and its expansion trend is still continuing. Many listed companies that have never been involved in the LED industry have also joined, such as the recently announced Dazu Laser, Fu Japan Electronics, etc., hope to catch up with the "high-speed trains of energy-saving emission reduction, green environmental protection." However, for many years, A-share listed companies have often been trapped in the “one-on-one, one-off†circle. When emerging technologies “have been sharply pointedâ€, listed companies that “see the money†will immediately “stand on the forefrontâ€, but with the exception of the initial lucrative profits, more are caused by overcapacity. Scarred, of course, there are blind investors.
This kind of historical "cup" is not the first time. The lessons of polysilicon and LCD screens that have only recently emerged are still vivid. This year, China's polysilicon production is expected to be twice the world's demand, LCD screen production has greatly exceeded the market demand, the country has restricted the continued expansion of these two industries. So will LEDs repeat the same mistakes? Some analysts believe that LED market space is huge, and the current production capacity is far from enough in the next three to five years. But does this mean that as long as LED production is profitable? The answer is of course no. Analysts said that it is currently the era of LED in the Warring States Period, and the group is struggling. Not all companies engaged in the LED industry will go on the road, and the pie may be a trap.
Listed companies catch up with LED high-speed vehicles
I don't know when, LEDs (light-emitting diodes) began to catch people's eyes. With the increasing popularity of LED technology, a number of LED companies are rapidly emerging, and LED is also known as "the most fashionable new energy industry."
The scent-sensitive capital market also responded quickly: from December last year to the beginning of this year, the LED plate led by Sanan Optoelectronics and Silan Micro was strong against the market, and the LED concept was collectively activated. Dehao Runda, Tongfang, and Lianfang Chuangyin and others have hit a new high before the Spring Festival. The rapid development of LEDs has caused most people in the industry to call for “vigilance bubbleâ€. What is the current status of the LED industry?
At present, all LED companies are rapidly expanding their production capacity and launching strategies. From the LED industry leader Sanan Optoelectronics to the expansion of production capacity of Shilanwei, and then to the "half-way" Dehao Runda, the LED industry investment boom has almost swept the entire industry.
At present, Sanan Optoelectronics LED is the largest. Lianchuang Optoelectronics is a veteran of LED, long in LED packaging and application, and has a complete industrial chain. Silan is slightly longer than LED chips. Dehao Runda is a cutting-edge, entering the LED to establish a sound industrial chain.
Sanan Optoelectronics, the largest LED manufacturer in China, announced in January this year that it would throw 12 billion yuan to build an LED base. Sanan Optoelectronics currently has 14 internationally advanced MOCVD and supporting equipment, with an annual production capacity of 450,000 epitaxial wafers and 15 billion chips.
Not only Sanan Optoelectronics, etc., global LED manufacturers are also expanding. Among the A-share listed companies, Zhengtong Electronics, Dazu Laser, and Changjiang Communications also announced their investment plans for LEDs in the near future.
Silan Micro, which has completed the construction of five LED production lines, plans to issue additional funds of no more than 600 million yuan in January this year for the expansion of high-brightness LED chip production line projects and the replenishment of working capital. “Half-way home†Dehao Runda began to track the LED industry in 2008. In 2009, it acquired 51% of Jianlongda and 30% of Ruituo officially entered the market. On February 1, 2010, it cooperated with Wuhu Municipal Government to start chip project. , to the LED optoelectronic industry with 6 billion yuan. On December 7 last year, Changjiang Communications cooperated with the Huanghua District Government of Wuhan City to invest in the construction of the largest LED lighting production base in Central China in Huanghua District. The estimated annual sales revenue is 2 billion yuan.
Will it repeat the old road of polysilicon industry?
The hot LED situation seems to be somewhat similar to history, and it has to be reminiscent of the crazy polysilicon and LCD panels. According to a report from the China Electronic Materials Industry Association to the National Development and Reform Commission, by the end of June 2009, 19 polysilicon projects in China had been put into production, with a production capacity of 30,000 tons/year, and more than 10 companies under construction. Expansion of the polysilicon project, the total planned production capacity is expected to exceed 100,000 tons by 2010. In 2008, the total demand for polysilicon in China was only 17,000 tons. If these capacities are fully realized, they will exceed twice the global demand. The overcapacity of polysilicon has shifted from anxiety to reality.
Wang Jing, chief researcher of Hongyuan Securities Energy Industry, said that in 2007, the actual production of polysilicon in the country was less than 1,000 tons. In 2008, the annual production capacity was about 15,000 tons, and by 2010, the production capacity surged to 100,000 tons. The price of polysilicon has also dropped rapidly in the past two years, which has caused many listed companies to complain. The previous investment has already gone down. The results have just come out, but there is a situation of overcapacity and price plunging. Many listed companies have to choose to "come and go", or to find someone to buy, or to hold on to the teeth, but only a few of them live, most companies fell before the upcoming spring.
The "cups" have not only happened once, but the development of LCDs (liquid crystal panels) with only one word difference from LEDs is exactly the same. The emergence of LCD panels has made people have higher requirements for TV and computer display technology. From 2007 to 2009, the price of LCDs of the same specification has dropped by 50%, and the behind-the-scenes black hand is overcapacity. In 2009, China's LCD market demand was 290,000 units, and the actual output was twice that number.
Overcapacity in the next 3 to 5 years
"From the current trend, LED overcapacity is inevitable." Li Jianjun, an analyst with Fortune Securities' new energy industry, said with concern that the output value of LED lighting applications reached 60 billion yuan last year, an increase of 33% over 2008. According to the research of displaysearch, it is expected that the global LED demand will increase by 26% year-on-year this year. The market space is huge, attracting many listed companies to rush. Objectively speaking, the market in this industry is very broad, but at present, the manufacturers engaged in LED production in China are in the Warring States era. Due to the high technical threshold of LED, the core technology is in the hands of the United States and Japan. The listed companies in China are engaged in more packaging and application stages of non-core technologies. In addition to processing materials, due to the protection of intellectual property rights, most of them are In the domestic production and sales, the proportion of export is very small. Although the industry has broad prospects, at present, domestic applications are mostly government procurement, and there is no real entry into the civilian sector, so the market demand is very small. Even if the market opens in the future, due to the early involvement of foreign and Taiwanese regions in the production of this product, the technology is mature and may seize the market opportunity. In particular, some listed companies that do not have technical reserves are only blindly entering because of lucrative profits, and may eventually fall before the market opens.
Huang Ping, a new energy industry analyst at Lianxun Securities, also believes that the market is huge, but whether listed companies can make money depends on their own skills. At present, LED display technology is only applied in four fields such as indicator light, display screen, mobile phone keyboard, camera flash and LCD backlight. The most widely used illumination source in the market is still not open. Due to the current scale production and the immature technology, the price is too high and it is difficult for ordinary residents to accept. But with government subsidies, as well as the maturity and application of technology, its cost will definitely decrease. From the next three to five years, the current production capacity is far from enough. He pointed out that all the proposed LED-related patents began in 1990. By 2010, the effective patent period of 20 years will gradually expire, and the original industrial patent structure will be forced to adjust. If a domestically strong enterprise can seize the opportunity, it will definitely rise rapidly. Now many listed companies have swarmed in, and they have seen this. However, due to the lack of technical reserves in the past, it is more important that the speed of industrial scale is ahead of the application, which will cause a group of enterprises to fall early.
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