Following the boom in 2010, shipments will be reduced by 5.5% this year; it will resume growth in 2012.
According to the research report of the set-top box market of IHS iSuppli Corp., after the increase in sales volume in 2010, the global set-top box shipments in 2011 are expected to decline by 5.5%.
Set-top box shipments this year are expected to be 134.9 million, down from the high of 142.7 million set last year. Although the market is adjusting downwards this year, it will improve slightly in 2012. It is expected that the shipment volume will increase by 0.4% to 135.4 million, and then the growth rate will be a few percent in the next two years. However, there will be signs of market saturation by 2015, when the growth rate of shipments will be less than 1%, reaching 151.7 million, as shown in Figure 2.
IHS believes that, overall, the expected decline in 2011 does not represent a downturn in the market, but an amendment to a 10.4% increase in 2010. The set-top box market was particularly strong last year as the Football World Cup final and Comcast, the world's largest cable operator, moved from analog to digital transmission. The football World Cup broadcast brought many new users worldwide, and the transition to digitization of Comcast is enough to push North American set-top box shipments to 29.3 million in 2010, which is much higher than the 25.6 million in the previous year.
IHS predicts that the set-top box market will continue to grow after last year’s explosive performance brought about by abnormal factors but will remain fragmented. In mature markets such as North America and Europe, the expansion momentum of the set-top box market will shift from consumers to high-end set-top boxes that can watch high-definition programs. In developing regions such as Asia, growth will come from consumers starting to use entry-level SD set-top boxes. When the emerging regions finally adopt high-definition set-top boxes and digital video recorders (DVRs), the set-top box industry will usher in yet another wave of growth. With digital video recorders, time-shift viewing and tracking can be achieved.
Four suppliers formed the first group, including Pace plc, the UK's number one in 2010, with shipments of 20.7 million. Followed by three US manufacturers: Motorola, shipped 19 million; Technicolor, shipped 12.9 million; Cisco, shipped 12.2 million. The four vendors together have a market share of 44%.
Among the top 10 manufacturers, South Korea’s Samsung ranked fifth, and the owner of Dish Network—the US’s Echo¬Star ranked sixth, as well as Skyworth, Humax, and three Chinese companies on the same continent.
As the only market to meet demand from local manufacturers, China will continue to occupy a growing share of the total set-top box consumption. The increasing importance of the Chinese market and the higher status of local manufacturers indicates that it is impossible for current non-Chinese companies to maintain their dominant position.
STB semiconductors remain strong. Despite the drop in set-top box costs for the set-top box market towards high-end systems, its ASP has continued to decline. The average selling price in 2010 fell below US$103, compared with slightly more than US$107 in the previous year. The key factor in the reduction of drive costs is the drop in the price of semiconductors for set-top boxes. Due to the continuous development of process technology, the cost of chip production continues to decline. For example, the cost of high-definition processors is now only slightly higher than 13 US dollars, the original up to 20 US dollars. The cost will continue to fall. In 2015, the overall material cost of STBs is expected to fall by another 10-15% from the current level.
Even if the price of chips falls, semiconductors will still have a good chance. It is estimated that annual sales will reach 4 billion U.S. dollars until 2015. Not only will the semiconductor content in the set-top box remain stable, but the value of the chips used in the set-top box will also remain at a high level.
For example, the value of a dedicated chip in a high-definition set-top box is three times that of an equivalent chip in a standard set-top box. Processors used in high-end processors, such as media centers and residential gateways, are also expensive. As operators introduce these products to users' homes, high-end processors will have a greater share in semiconductors.
Another growth opportunity for semiconductors is set-top box memory devices. The teardown analysis conducted by IHS iSuppli Company confirmed that high-end set-top boxes contain more DRAM and NAND flash memory.
Jordan Selburn is the chief analyst of IHS' consumer platform.
According to the research report of the set-top box market of IHS iSuppli Corp., after the increase in sales volume in 2010, the global set-top box shipments in 2011 are expected to decline by 5.5%.
Set-top box shipments this year are expected to be 134.9 million, down from the high of 142.7 million set last year. Although the market is adjusting downwards this year, it will improve slightly in 2012. It is expected that the shipment volume will increase by 0.4% to 135.4 million, and then the growth rate will be a few percent in the next two years. However, there will be signs of market saturation by 2015, when the growth rate of shipments will be less than 1%, reaching 151.7 million, as shown in Figure 2.
IHS believes that, overall, the expected decline in 2011 does not represent a downturn in the market, but an amendment to a 10.4% increase in 2010. The set-top box market was particularly strong last year as the Football World Cup final and Comcast, the world's largest cable operator, moved from analog to digital transmission. The football World Cup broadcast brought many new users worldwide, and the transition to digitization of Comcast is enough to push North American set-top box shipments to 29.3 million in 2010, which is much higher than the 25.6 million in the previous year.
IHS predicts that the set-top box market will continue to grow after last year’s explosive performance brought about by abnormal factors but will remain fragmented. In mature markets such as North America and Europe, the expansion momentum of the set-top box market will shift from consumers to high-end set-top boxes that can watch high-definition programs. In developing regions such as Asia, growth will come from consumers starting to use entry-level SD set-top boxes. When the emerging regions finally adopt high-definition set-top boxes and digital video recorders (DVRs), the set-top box industry will usher in yet another wave of growth. With digital video recorders, time-shift viewing and tracking can be achieved.
Four suppliers formed the first group, including Pace plc, the UK's number one in 2010, with shipments of 20.7 million. Followed by three US manufacturers: Motorola, shipped 19 million; Technicolor, shipped 12.9 million; Cisco, shipped 12.2 million. The four vendors together have a market share of 44%.
Among the top 10 manufacturers, South Korea’s Samsung ranked fifth, and the owner of Dish Network—the US’s Echo¬Star ranked sixth, as well as Skyworth, Humax, and three Chinese companies on the same continent.
As the only market to meet demand from local manufacturers, China will continue to occupy a growing share of the total set-top box consumption. The increasing importance of the Chinese market and the higher status of local manufacturers indicates that it is impossible for current non-Chinese companies to maintain their dominant position.
STB semiconductors remain strong. Despite the drop in set-top box costs for the set-top box market towards high-end systems, its ASP has continued to decline. The average selling price in 2010 fell below US$103, compared with slightly more than US$107 in the previous year. The key factor in the reduction of drive costs is the drop in the price of semiconductors for set-top boxes. Due to the continuous development of process technology, the cost of chip production continues to decline. For example, the cost of high-definition processors is now only slightly higher than 13 US dollars, the original up to 20 US dollars. The cost will continue to fall. In 2015, the overall material cost of STBs is expected to fall by another 10-15% from the current level.
Even if the price of chips falls, semiconductors will still have a good chance. It is estimated that annual sales will reach 4 billion U.S. dollars until 2015. Not only will the semiconductor content in the set-top box remain stable, but the value of the chips used in the set-top box will also remain at a high level.
For example, the value of a dedicated chip in a high-definition set-top box is three times that of an equivalent chip in a standard set-top box. Processors used in high-end processors, such as media centers and residential gateways, are also expensive. As operators introduce these products to users' homes, high-end processors will have a greater share in semiconductors.
Another growth opportunity for semiconductors is set-top box memory devices. The teardown analysis conducted by IHS iSuppli Company confirmed that high-end set-top boxes contain more DRAM and NAND flash memory.
Jordan Selburn is the chief analyst of IHS' consumer platform.
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