The LED upstream that was once heated by the capital is paying for the enthusiasm of the past. According to GLII data, the upstream supply of the LED industry is seriously oversupplied, and the operating rate is less than 50%. Some insiders pointed out that it is expected that the upstream area of ​​LED will still face inventory pressure, and it is inevitable to shuffle.
According to Robert Steele, a US market research firm, Strategies Unlimited, MOCVD equipment that has been laid out or placed on the MOCVD equipment capacity model is sufficient for future years. With the emergence of higher productivity MOCVD (42-45 x 2 inches), it may be that in the near future, MOCVD overcapacity or equipment idleness will occur in some places.
The view of Jed Dorsheimer of the global investment company Canaccord Adams also brought bad news. He believes that LED will be strongly prepared for the growth of the next consumer electronics (laptop and LCD TV), this opportunity far exceeds the mobile era, which will lead LED into the second cycle. However, during this cycle, 780 new MOCVDs will be installed and used, of which 250 MOCVD will be installed in 2010 alone; if the lighting requirements are not kept up, 2014 may enter a digestive phase.
The excessive release of MOCVD, like the crazy water hyacinth, began to retaliate against the once frenetic market?
Retaliation from MOCVD
Since the end of 2011, some domestic chip manufacturers have been exposed to the delay or unsubscription of MOCVD. At this time, Veeco and Aixtron, the MOCVD equipment manufacturers that account for more than 90% of the global market share, have begun to decline.
In just two years, the MOCVD market, known as the “cash treeâ€, quickly moved from the outbreak to the freezing period. Words such as inventory, sales, and low operating rates frequently appeared in relevant media reports. “MOCVD equipment manufacturers are experiencing 'unbearable lightness',†said industry insiders.
On the one hand, the buyer's market is cold. This year, LED chip maker Shanghai Lanbao Optoelectronic Materials Co., Ltd. was unsuccessful in operation, and its epitaxial and chip equipment was seized. MOCVD equipment was auctioned at low prices, but nobody cares.
On the other hand, the seller's market is starting to move. "Considering the previous agreement between the company and the government, many manufacturers want to sell but they are afraid to sell it, because one day is a loss." Industry insiders said so.
"At this point in time, even if MOCVD is resold at a discount of 20% or 30%, there will be no manufacturers to take over." Ye Guoguang, special assistant to Hua Lei Optoelectronics, said that the overall market situation of domestic LED chips is not good this year. Most chip makers have been badly hurt and have to suspend the addition and start-up of MOCVD.
The MOCVD market is still in the "digestive period"
At present, the utilization rate of MOCVD is also seen as a barometer of whether the market is warming up or not.
According to Aixtron sales company, overall, in the first two years, Chinese industry investors have absorbed more than 80% of MOCVD equipment worldwide. Nowadays, in the face of the structural overcapacity crisis of upstream capacity, how such a huge equipment can let the unopened market digest these products seems to be still unsolvable. In fact, some enterprises have begun to sell unopened “used equipmentâ€. .
Looking back at the market prospects in 2012, equipment manufacturer Aixtron also said that the current order visibility is extremely limited. The market situation at the end of last year may last until this year. Since the second half of last year, due to the expansion of domestic MOCVD installed capacity, the LED industry's structural capacity Surplus has become a reality, from raw materials to chips to end products, the industry has entered the integration period ahead of schedule.
GLII predicts that according to the MOCVD equipment capacity model, MOCVD equipment that has been laid out or placed is sufficient for future years. Last year, GaN-based MOCVD shipments fell to 342 units, a drop of 48%, currently at the bottom. It is expected that there will be a slow recovery in the middle and late second quarter of this year.
“The MOCVD machine has almost become saturated and has been in an oversupply situation.†The industry generally believes that the growth of new capacity of the global MOCVD machine will gradually slow down. In the future, only the support of the lighting market will be able to see a turnaround. Enterprises have also slowed down the pace of expansion of the machine, some small factories have appeared in the idle state of equipment, coupled with the sudden overcapacity in the second half of last year, the Chinese LED upstream investment MOCVD equipment pace suspended, once the momentum to buy Hundreds of MOCVD's co-optics are even more diversified.
Perhaps, for domestic chip manufacturers, although a large number of MOCVDs have been purchased, due to the lack of professional and technical talents and the lack of production technology, the performance of the chips produced is still quite different from that of Taiwanese companies. For these companies, What is more important now is "how to improve the performance quality and cost performance of products, especially to find a viable commercial channel to digest existing stocks."
Price warfare
In recent years, LED upstream investment overheating is the most obvious, as local governments have the largest MPCVD subsidies for LED upstream equipment. “(LED upstream chip) from 2009 in short supply to the basic supply and demand balance in 2010, there was an oversupply in 2011, and by 2012 has been a serious oversupply.†Zheng Tiemin, general manager of Inspur Huaguang Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. said bluntly.
Along with the serious overcapacity is the price war. According to GLII statistics, the price of LED upstream substrate and chip has dropped by more than one-third compared with the beginning of the year, resulting in the upstream profit being severely compressed. On the one hand, there is insufficient demand. On the one hand, profits are meager, and many upstream enterprises choose to cut production. Statistics show that nearly 50% of the entire upstream of the LED is idle.
In recent years, the Dehao Runda three quarterly report, which is investing in the upstream of LEDs, shows that only 38 of the 80 MOCVD equipments of its two subsidiaries are in mass production, except for another 5 for R&D, and another 37. The machines are still in the process of installation and commissioning, and the operating rate is only slightly higher than 50%.
A number of companies said in an interview with reporters that the industry has not yet recovered, and the upstream will still be in destocking next year, so prices will continue to decline. On the other hand, with overcapacity, the government's subsidies for purchasing equipment have also become cautious, and companies will really start to kill at the market level.
In fact, the three quarterly reports of listed companies have already revealed clues. Due to the continuous decline in product prices, Huacan Optoelectronics reported that its revenue and net profit decreased by 25.7% and 49% respectively. In recent years, the third quarter report of Dehao Runda, which has been relying on subsidies to maintain the scenery, shows that its net profit in the first three quarters fell by 57.41% compared with the same period of last year. The company said in the report that the main reason for the decline was the company’s government subsidy ratio during the reporting period. The decrease in the same period last year and the increase in expenses.
Zheng Tiemin believes: "It is foreseeable that in the next few years, there will be a phenomenon of shutting down production, reorganizing assets, mergers and acquisitions, and launching new projects." He predicted that there will be less than 30 companies remaining in epitaxial chip companies next year, and the reshuffle will continue to deepen.
According to statistics, the new planning for the LED industry reached 194.5 billion in 2011, and this year it dropped sharply to 100 billion, a decrease of nearly 50% year-on-year. This shows that the industry is gradually becoming more rational.
GLII data shows that due to overcapacity in the upstream, the capital that originally flowed to the upstream chip has turned to downstream applications this year. The planned investment in epitaxial chips has dropped from 46% last year to 10%, while downstream applications have risen from 21% last year to 53%. Industry insiders said that the concentration of capital downstream will intensify the polarization of the downstream.
It is understood that this year, Dehao Runda, which originally used epitaxial chips as its main business, is also accelerating its extension to the application side. At the same time, midstream packaging companies such as Hongli Optoelectronics are also actively cutting into downstream applications. After more capital flows into the lower reaches, enterprises that are large in scale and have excellent products will continue to expand in size, while small enterprises will rely on low-cost dumping strategies to obtain a part of the market. “The most difficult thing is that enterprises with both scale and product levels are in the middle. ".
How to balance risk
MOCVD manufacturers have a hard time, mainly from the downturn in the downstream market.
At present, the operating status of some domestic LED chip manufacturers has entered a stalemate state. On the one hand, the price of chips continues to fall, and enterprises hope to slow down production capacity or stop production to solve the increasing inventory crisis; on the other hand, due to the particularity of MOCVD equipment. (Once production is stopped, production resumes, and higher operating costs are required), which makes the company want to stop production, but it cannot stop production.
Li Bingjie, chairman of Jingyuan Optoelectronics, said that according to current market demand, the world only needs 1,600 MOCVD, but now there are nearly 2,800 MOCVD, of which the mainland accounts for a quarter. According to a recent research report released by GLII, in the first three quarters of this year, the average operating rate of domestic MOCVD was 58.4%, and the capacity utilization rate was about 30.1%.
At the moment, how to deal with idle MOCVD equipment has become a big problem that plagues some chip manufacturers on the margin of loss.
According to industry insiders, some companies simply do not start production, do not make money but at least will not lose money. According to industry insiders, most of the 50 MOCVD equipment ordered by Yangzhou Zhongke Semiconductor, which is currently under the background of state-owned assets, have not been put into operation.
For the chip makers with the background of the state-owned assets that have already started, “because of the policy requirements, they are forced to continue production. However, the start of the machine means a loss.†According to industry insiders, some companies only choose to extend the customer’s payment period to obtain the market. Share.
On the other hand, chip makers without strong capital support are even worse. "At present, there are cases in which the chip companies resell MOCVD equipment in the domestic market. Some enterprises with poor management hope to spend the market downturn by financing or reselling equipment." One industry insider admitted that these enterprises and equipment did not get Better market valuation.
Based on this, MOCVD equipment manufacturers are now testing other areas to seek a balance of market risks. The reporter learned that Aixtron is currently developing MOCVD based on silicon substrate and determining OLED lighting equipment as the future development direction.
(1) Why is MOCVD surplus?
Not the MOCVD equipment is surplus, but the LED application market demand is not fully activated, not as fast as expected, such as the low penetration of LED lighting, which leads to the structural process of the chip, with the LED application market demand Gradually increase, this phenomenon will inevitably ease.
——Shandong Chaohua Huaguang Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. Xiao Chengfeng, Deputy General Manager
The idle rate of MOCVD is so high, mainly due to the policy role of government subsidies, resulting in over-investment in the upstream of the LED industry, which is reflected in the excessive ordering of MOCVD equipment in China. These equipments have enabled the upstream capacity to expand on a large scale.
However, the current lighting market has not experienced explosive growth as expected, resulting in a very high MOCVD idle rate, which is typical of overcapacity. This problem cannot be solved quickly. It is judged that the LED chip industry is in the stage of “de-stocking†to “de-capacityâ€, which means that some MOCVD will be turned off in the future, or there will be a serious shortage of operating rates. In the future, if the cost performance of the product increases and the lighting market starts up quickly, the MOCVD idle rate will be reduced.
——Zhang Shaohua, Marketing Director of Jingneng Optoelectronics (Jiangxi) Co., Ltd.
There are many reasons for the high MOCVD idle rate:
First, local government subsidies have spawned a large number of new MOCVDs without considering market demand;
Second, the LED lighting market has not been fully activated. The LED display market has been very good in the past two years. There is also a big expectation for the LED lighting market in 2012. Now the LED lighting commercial lighting market is very active, but the home lighting is somewhat slow. If the home lighting in 2014 is fully activated, it is enough to digest the existing MOCVD capacity;
Third, the lack of technical capabilities, extension and chip mass production requires considerable technical precipitation, not to dig some foreign technicians with high salaries to solve the problem.
——Dong Zhijiang, General Manager of Wuhan Diyuan Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd.
(2) What is the loss of equipment?
If MOCVD has two furnaces a day, the cost per day is $10,000, and that is $300,000 a month, but it can't be easily shut down. Once the machine is shut down, production begins again. The quality of the product must reach the original level. Generally, it takes another three months. The time for the customer to certify the LED chip and packaged device may take another three to six months. The loss cannot be estimated.
——Wang Lianghai, Vice President of Tongfang
According to the investment plan announced by LED upstream at the beginning of the year, LED upstream production capacity may exceed the market growth demand for more than three years in advance.
——Wang Min, Chairman of Jiangxi Jinghe Lighting Co., Ltd.
In just two years, the MOCVD market, known as the “cash treeâ€, quickly moved from the outbreak to the freezing period. Words such as inventory, sales, and low operating rates frequently appeared in relevant media reports. MOCVD equipment manufacturers are experiencing 'unbearable light'.
——Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, Director of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute
In the first half of this year, many LED chip companies are on the verge of breakeven, and some companies are already at a loss. At present, the yield of domestic LED chips is between 70% and 80%. In addition to good quality chips entering the market through formal channels may not lose money. Those inferior chips can only be sold as inventory and then sold at low prices.
——Ye Guoguang, Special Assistant to Hua Lei Optoelectronics
What adjustments will you make in the face of idle MOCVD?
In fact, in recent years, the blind investment and overcapacity of the LED upstream chip industry have caused the capital side to “talk about the color changeâ€. LED chip companies have lost the bargaining chip. The LED chip industry belongs to the burning industry. Today, this market is in a downturn and the risk is even greater. We certainly cannot dare to get involved.
——Wang Xiaodong, deputy general manager of Jinglin Investment
In the future, MOCVD should focus on the combination of process and equipment, and the combination of the two is the real development direction. The state not only needs to fund the research and development of MOCVD equipment, but also fully considers the combination of process and equipment in the research and development stage, subsidizes the epitaxial production enterprises to try MOCVD, and explores the successful epitaxial production process according to the characteristics of the equipment, because this process also takes a huge manpower. , material and financial resources.
——Jiang Fengyi, Vice President of Nanchang University
From the prototype to the product, it is often necessary to do more stability, reliability and long-term assessment experiments, and do a lot of optimization and improvement work in line with product requirements.
——Zeng Yiping, deputy director of the Semiconductor Lighting R&D Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
At present, most domestic MOCVD is still in the debugging period. The mass-produced products that are truly usable have not yet come out, and several equipment manufacturers have not given a definite answer to whether they can be successfully introduced to the market. How to promote domestic MOCVD, in fact, there are not only many technical problems, but there are many obstacles to the subsequent realization of marketization.
——Zhang Hongbiao, Research Director, High-tech LED Industry Research Institute
The MOCVD arms race of chip manufacturers has reached its peak, and the number of domestic MOCVD equipment will not increase significantly in the next few years. Based on this, MOCVD equipment manufacturers are now testing other areas to seek a balance of market risks. It is understood that Aixtron is currently developing MOCVD based on silicon substrate, and OLED lighting equipment is determined as the future development direction... The LED upstream that was once heated by the capital is paying for the past frenzy. In 2013, if the upstream of the LED industry is seriously oversupply, the operating rate is less than 50%. If the LED upstream sector is still facing inventory pressure next year, shuffling is inevitable.
(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)
According to Robert Steele, a US market research firm, Strategies Unlimited, MOCVD equipment that has been laid out or placed on the MOCVD equipment capacity model is sufficient for future years. With the emergence of higher productivity MOCVD (42-45 x 2 inches), it may be that in the near future, MOCVD overcapacity or equipment idleness will occur in some places.
The view of Jed Dorsheimer of the global investment company Canaccord Adams also brought bad news. He believes that LED will be strongly prepared for the growth of the next consumer electronics (laptop and LCD TV), this opportunity far exceeds the mobile era, which will lead LED into the second cycle. However, during this cycle, 780 new MOCVDs will be installed and used, of which 250 MOCVD will be installed in 2010 alone; if the lighting requirements are not kept up, 2014 may enter a digestive phase.
The excessive release of MOCVD, like the crazy water hyacinth, began to retaliate against the once frenetic market?
Retaliation from MOCVD
Since the end of 2011, some domestic chip manufacturers have been exposed to the delay or unsubscription of MOCVD. At this time, Veeco and Aixtron, the MOCVD equipment manufacturers that account for more than 90% of the global market share, have begun to decline.
In just two years, the MOCVD market, known as the “cash treeâ€, quickly moved from the outbreak to the freezing period. Words such as inventory, sales, and low operating rates frequently appeared in relevant media reports. “MOCVD equipment manufacturers are experiencing 'unbearable lightness',†said industry insiders.
On the one hand, the buyer's market is cold. This year, LED chip maker Shanghai Lanbao Optoelectronic Materials Co., Ltd. was unsuccessful in operation, and its epitaxial and chip equipment was seized. MOCVD equipment was auctioned at low prices, but nobody cares.
On the other hand, the seller's market is starting to move. "Considering the previous agreement between the company and the government, many manufacturers want to sell but they are afraid to sell it, because one day is a loss." Industry insiders said so.
"At this point in time, even if MOCVD is resold at a discount of 20% or 30%, there will be no manufacturers to take over." Ye Guoguang, special assistant to Hua Lei Optoelectronics, said that the overall market situation of domestic LED chips is not good this year. Most chip makers have been badly hurt and have to suspend the addition and start-up of MOCVD.
The MOCVD market is still in the "digestive period"
At present, the utilization rate of MOCVD is also seen as a barometer of whether the market is warming up or not.
According to Aixtron sales company, overall, in the first two years, Chinese industry investors have absorbed more than 80% of MOCVD equipment worldwide. Nowadays, in the face of the structural overcapacity crisis of upstream capacity, how such a huge equipment can let the unopened market digest these products seems to be still unsolvable. In fact, some enterprises have begun to sell unopened “used equipmentâ€. .
Looking back at the market prospects in 2012, equipment manufacturer Aixtron also said that the current order visibility is extremely limited. The market situation at the end of last year may last until this year. Since the second half of last year, due to the expansion of domestic MOCVD installed capacity, the LED industry's structural capacity Surplus has become a reality, from raw materials to chips to end products, the industry has entered the integration period ahead of schedule.
GLII predicts that according to the MOCVD equipment capacity model, MOCVD equipment that has been laid out or placed is sufficient for future years. Last year, GaN-based MOCVD shipments fell to 342 units, a drop of 48%, currently at the bottom. It is expected that there will be a slow recovery in the middle and late second quarter of this year.
“The MOCVD machine has almost become saturated and has been in an oversupply situation.†The industry generally believes that the growth of new capacity of the global MOCVD machine will gradually slow down. In the future, only the support of the lighting market will be able to see a turnaround. Enterprises have also slowed down the pace of expansion of the machine, some small factories have appeared in the idle state of equipment, coupled with the sudden overcapacity in the second half of last year, the Chinese LED upstream investment MOCVD equipment pace suspended, once the momentum to buy Hundreds of MOCVD's co-optics are even more diversified.
Perhaps, for domestic chip manufacturers, although a large number of MOCVDs have been purchased, due to the lack of professional and technical talents and the lack of production technology, the performance of the chips produced is still quite different from that of Taiwanese companies. For these companies, What is more important now is "how to improve the performance quality and cost performance of products, especially to find a viable commercial channel to digest existing stocks."
Price warfare
In recent years, LED upstream investment overheating is the most obvious, as local governments have the largest MPCVD subsidies for LED upstream equipment. “(LED upstream chip) from 2009 in short supply to the basic supply and demand balance in 2010, there was an oversupply in 2011, and by 2012 has been a serious oversupply.†Zheng Tiemin, general manager of Inspur Huaguang Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. said bluntly.
Along with the serious overcapacity is the price war. According to GLII statistics, the price of LED upstream substrate and chip has dropped by more than one-third compared with the beginning of the year, resulting in the upstream profit being severely compressed. On the one hand, there is insufficient demand. On the one hand, profits are meager, and many upstream enterprises choose to cut production. Statistics show that nearly 50% of the entire upstream of the LED is idle.
In recent years, the Dehao Runda three quarterly report, which is investing in the upstream of LEDs, shows that only 38 of the 80 MOCVD equipments of its two subsidiaries are in mass production, except for another 5 for R&D, and another 37. The machines are still in the process of installation and commissioning, and the operating rate is only slightly higher than 50%.
A number of companies said in an interview with reporters that the industry has not yet recovered, and the upstream will still be in destocking next year, so prices will continue to decline. On the other hand, with overcapacity, the government's subsidies for purchasing equipment have also become cautious, and companies will really start to kill at the market level.
In fact, the three quarterly reports of listed companies have already revealed clues. Due to the continuous decline in product prices, Huacan Optoelectronics reported that its revenue and net profit decreased by 25.7% and 49% respectively. In recent years, the third quarter report of Dehao Runda, which has been relying on subsidies to maintain the scenery, shows that its net profit in the first three quarters fell by 57.41% compared with the same period of last year. The company said in the report that the main reason for the decline was the company’s government subsidy ratio during the reporting period. The decrease in the same period last year and the increase in expenses.
Zheng Tiemin believes: "It is foreseeable that in the next few years, there will be a phenomenon of shutting down production, reorganizing assets, mergers and acquisitions, and launching new projects." He predicted that there will be less than 30 companies remaining in epitaxial chip companies next year, and the reshuffle will continue to deepen.
According to statistics, the new planning for the LED industry reached 194.5 billion in 2011, and this year it dropped sharply to 100 billion, a decrease of nearly 50% year-on-year. This shows that the industry is gradually becoming more rational.
GLII data shows that due to overcapacity in the upstream, the capital that originally flowed to the upstream chip has turned to downstream applications this year. The planned investment in epitaxial chips has dropped from 46% last year to 10%, while downstream applications have risen from 21% last year to 53%. Industry insiders said that the concentration of capital downstream will intensify the polarization of the downstream.
It is understood that this year, Dehao Runda, which originally used epitaxial chips as its main business, is also accelerating its extension to the application side. At the same time, midstream packaging companies such as Hongli Optoelectronics are also actively cutting into downstream applications. After more capital flows into the lower reaches, enterprises that are large in scale and have excellent products will continue to expand in size, while small enterprises will rely on low-cost dumping strategies to obtain a part of the market. “The most difficult thing is that enterprises with both scale and product levels are in the middle. ".
How to balance risk
MOCVD manufacturers have a hard time, mainly from the downturn in the downstream market.
At present, the operating status of some domestic LED chip manufacturers has entered a stalemate state. On the one hand, the price of chips continues to fall, and enterprises hope to slow down production capacity or stop production to solve the increasing inventory crisis; on the other hand, due to the particularity of MOCVD equipment. (Once production is stopped, production resumes, and higher operating costs are required), which makes the company want to stop production, but it cannot stop production.
Li Bingjie, chairman of Jingyuan Optoelectronics, said that according to current market demand, the world only needs 1,600 MOCVD, but now there are nearly 2,800 MOCVD, of which the mainland accounts for a quarter. According to a recent research report released by GLII, in the first three quarters of this year, the average operating rate of domestic MOCVD was 58.4%, and the capacity utilization rate was about 30.1%.
At the moment, how to deal with idle MOCVD equipment has become a big problem that plagues some chip manufacturers on the margin of loss.
According to industry insiders, some companies simply do not start production, do not make money but at least will not lose money. According to industry insiders, most of the 50 MOCVD equipment ordered by Yangzhou Zhongke Semiconductor, which is currently under the background of state-owned assets, have not been put into operation.
For the chip makers with the background of the state-owned assets that have already started, “because of the policy requirements, they are forced to continue production. However, the start of the machine means a loss.†According to industry insiders, some companies only choose to extend the customer’s payment period to obtain the market. Share.
On the other hand, chip makers without strong capital support are even worse. "At present, there are cases in which the chip companies resell MOCVD equipment in the domestic market. Some enterprises with poor management hope to spend the market downturn by financing or reselling equipment." One industry insider admitted that these enterprises and equipment did not get Better market valuation.
Based on this, MOCVD equipment manufacturers are now testing other areas to seek a balance of market risks. The reporter learned that Aixtron is currently developing MOCVD based on silicon substrate and determining OLED lighting equipment as the future development direction.
(1) Why is MOCVD surplus?
Not the MOCVD equipment is surplus, but the LED application market demand is not fully activated, not as fast as expected, such as the low penetration of LED lighting, which leads to the structural process of the chip, with the LED application market demand Gradually increase, this phenomenon will inevitably ease.
——Shandong Chaohua Huaguang Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. Xiao Chengfeng, Deputy General Manager
The idle rate of MOCVD is so high, mainly due to the policy role of government subsidies, resulting in over-investment in the upstream of the LED industry, which is reflected in the excessive ordering of MOCVD equipment in China. These equipments have enabled the upstream capacity to expand on a large scale.
However, the current lighting market has not experienced explosive growth as expected, resulting in a very high MOCVD idle rate, which is typical of overcapacity. This problem cannot be solved quickly. It is judged that the LED chip industry is in the stage of “de-stocking†to “de-capacityâ€, which means that some MOCVD will be turned off in the future, or there will be a serious shortage of operating rates. In the future, if the cost performance of the product increases and the lighting market starts up quickly, the MOCVD idle rate will be reduced.
——Zhang Shaohua, Marketing Director of Jingneng Optoelectronics (Jiangxi) Co., Ltd.
There are many reasons for the high MOCVD idle rate:
First, local government subsidies have spawned a large number of new MOCVDs without considering market demand;
Second, the LED lighting market has not been fully activated. The LED display market has been very good in the past two years. There is also a big expectation for the LED lighting market in 2012. Now the LED lighting commercial lighting market is very active, but the home lighting is somewhat slow. If the home lighting in 2014 is fully activated, it is enough to digest the existing MOCVD capacity;
Third, the lack of technical capabilities, extension and chip mass production requires considerable technical precipitation, not to dig some foreign technicians with high salaries to solve the problem.
——Dong Zhijiang, General Manager of Wuhan Diyuan Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd.
(2) What is the loss of equipment?
If MOCVD has two furnaces a day, the cost per day is $10,000, and that is $300,000 a month, but it can't be easily shut down. Once the machine is shut down, production begins again. The quality of the product must reach the original level. Generally, it takes another three months. The time for the customer to certify the LED chip and packaged device may take another three to six months. The loss cannot be estimated.
——Wang Lianghai, Vice President of Tongfang
According to the investment plan announced by LED upstream at the beginning of the year, LED upstream production capacity may exceed the market growth demand for more than three years in advance.
——Wang Min, Chairman of Jiangxi Jinghe Lighting Co., Ltd.
In just two years, the MOCVD market, known as the “cash treeâ€, quickly moved from the outbreak to the freezing period. Words such as inventory, sales, and low operating rates frequently appeared in relevant media reports. MOCVD equipment manufacturers are experiencing 'unbearable light'.
——Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, Director of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute
In the first half of this year, many LED chip companies are on the verge of breakeven, and some companies are already at a loss. At present, the yield of domestic LED chips is between 70% and 80%. In addition to good quality chips entering the market through formal channels may not lose money. Those inferior chips can only be sold as inventory and then sold at low prices.
——Ye Guoguang, Special Assistant to Hua Lei Optoelectronics
What adjustments will you make in the face of idle MOCVD?
In fact, in recent years, the blind investment and overcapacity of the LED upstream chip industry have caused the capital side to “talk about the color changeâ€. LED chip companies have lost the bargaining chip. The LED chip industry belongs to the burning industry. Today, this market is in a downturn and the risk is even greater. We certainly cannot dare to get involved.
——Wang Xiaodong, deputy general manager of Jinglin Investment
In the future, MOCVD should focus on the combination of process and equipment, and the combination of the two is the real development direction. The state not only needs to fund the research and development of MOCVD equipment, but also fully considers the combination of process and equipment in the research and development stage, subsidizes the epitaxial production enterprises to try MOCVD, and explores the successful epitaxial production process according to the characteristics of the equipment, because this process also takes a huge manpower. , material and financial resources.
——Jiang Fengyi, Vice President of Nanchang University
From the prototype to the product, it is often necessary to do more stability, reliability and long-term assessment experiments, and do a lot of optimization and improvement work in line with product requirements.
——Zeng Yiping, deputy director of the Semiconductor Lighting R&D Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
At present, most domestic MOCVD is still in the debugging period. The mass-produced products that are truly usable have not yet come out, and several equipment manufacturers have not given a definite answer to whether they can be successfully introduced to the market. How to promote domestic MOCVD, in fact, there are not only many technical problems, but there are many obstacles to the subsequent realization of marketization.
——Zhang Hongbiao, Research Director, High-tech LED Industry Research Institute
The MOCVD arms race of chip manufacturers has reached its peak, and the number of domestic MOCVD equipment will not increase significantly in the next few years. Based on this, MOCVD equipment manufacturers are now testing other areas to seek a balance of market risks. It is understood that Aixtron is currently developing MOCVD based on silicon substrate, and OLED lighting equipment is determined as the future development direction... The LED upstream that was once heated by the capital is paying for the past frenzy. In 2013, if the upstream of the LED industry is seriously oversupply, the operating rate is less than 50%. If the LED upstream sector is still facing inventory pressure next year, shuffling is inevitable.
(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)
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