The Spring Festival holiday has passed, but the dazzling performance of CCTV Spring Festival Evening is still vivid, especially this year, a wave of black technology such as drones, robots, and holographic projections shines on the stage of the Spring Festival Evening. Following the appearance of 29 Dajiang drones on CCTV Spring Night last year, this year's zero-powered 50 drones appeared in the "Manchurian Fireworks" program performed by Mao Amin and Zhang Jie, and performed a "Full City Fireworks" technology. Beautiful view. In addition, on February 6th, Beijing time, in the super bowl midfield performance called "American Spring Festival Evening", Lady Gaga staged a show, and there were 300 drones behind her...
However, the reality of the drone industry is far from the scenery on the stage, such as how to fly safely is a headache. On February 3, unidentified lifts were found near Shenzhen Airport, causing some flights to be affected, while similar incidents occurred recently at Sichuan Mianyang Airport and Zhejiang Xiaoshan Airport. There is also a dangerous action on the Internet that people use drones to bundle fireworks through the high-voltage wires.
There are also some drone companies that don't feel the scenery. On November 9, 2016, the Karma drone, a sports camera brand owned by Gopro, announced that it will recall 2,500 units sold in just 16 days. On January 16, 2017, the Lily drone that has been hopping after crowdfunding Announced the closure, and the domestic news of two well-known drone manufacturers Yihang and zero-scale layoffs.
Obviously, not all UAV products have a bright future. Liu Huafang, an independent Internet researcher, told the Daily Economic News that the aerial photography demand for consumer drones is not just for the masses. The market space is limited, and the market is slower than the concept, which means that the supply and demand relationship is not yet Balance, and technical bottlenecks have also led to imperfections in the basic functions of the industry. It is also reasonable for the industry to fail to meet the expectations.
â— Industry slowdown technology needs to be broken
After the smart phone, drones that are easier to operate and lower in cost have become the most promising end products.
However, after nearly two years of spurt growth, the drones were cold in the capital market in 2016, and the shrinking investment has further diverged the two-stage differentiation of the drone market. At the beginning of December last year, the third quarter tracking report of the drone market pointed out that the market share of Dajiang declined for the first time, which indicates that the competition among the unicorn enterprises is more intense.
The industry believes that the drone market has entered the shuffling stage, and players on the international stage are particularly obvious. The Lily UAV company at the University of California at Berkeley was born in 2013. It was not happy to call itself a drone company. Instead, it was more willing to position the product in the "flying camera" category. The company's founders even Write down the ambition of "Camera Reinvented", which also reflects the functional attributes of the lily drone to the market.
In the spring of 2014, Lily received the first significant investment, and the investor was Shanna Fisher, the New York potential stock market leader. Soon after, the cool demo video of the Lily drone quickly swept through various social networks. In this way, Lily Camera, a drone that is far from energy-produced, was pushed into the spotlight and became the headline news that the major media rushed to report.
In December 2015, Lily announced the completion of $15 million in financing. However, this funding did not support the completion of the manufacture and delivery of the drone. In December 2015, Lily drones first jumped; in February 2016, they did not deliver as scheduled, and did not give specific delivery time; in August 2016, Lily finally announced the delivery time, the company said that “It will be shipped between December 2016 and January 2017†and even a detailed work schedule is listed.
In the case of three product jumps, in November 2016, Lily announced a bankruptcy.
Analysts pointed out that over-idealization is the main reason for Lily's collapse. Blind self-confidence underestimates the importance of mass production for high-performance hardware, supply chain management, and a large amount of capital support. Eventually, because of the lack of money, no aircraft can be built. Lily was forced to close down. It is worth mentioning that Zano, the star drone company that started business with Lily, had bankruptcy liquidation at the end of 2015. The supporters' money for crowdfunding was basically not returned.
At that time, there was a sharp point in the media that "Zano's today is probably Lily's tomorrow", and now it seems that it is really a word.
An aerial photography enthusiast told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that from the user's point of view, if Lily realized the drones that it had previously mentioned, including handheld landing, waterproofing, and flying, it is definitely a consumer market. The most advanced machine, but it did not make it, it shows that it is technically difficult to get in one step. The concept is bigger than the actual one, the idea is too radical, and the mass production cannot be realized in two years. The market environment has changed greatly. Dajiang and zero degree are iteratively fast in both the product and the application scenario, so the lily action is too slow and there is no chance of breaking through.
It can be seen that in the consumer-grade UAV market, strong technical support is required between the concept machine and the production machine, and funds are needed to cope with the rapidly changing market environment. In 2017, entrepreneurial enterprises will be phased out by the market, and the consumer drone market will enter a stage of full competition.
In fact, from the second half of 2016, the seemingly calm drone market has already been surging. According to public reports, the US drone boss 3D RoboTIcs completely withdrew from the drone hardware market. Even GoPro entered the drone market and suffered a series of setbacks. The Karma drone announced that it will sell 2500 soon. All the recalls were made on the grounds that “a few users feedback that the drone will have a power failure stall during the flightâ€. Recently, Parrot, the third-ranked player in the consumer drone market, could not withstand the violent offensive from competitors and announced major layoffs.
â— Participants are increasingly competing for differentiation
Although the market space of the consumer drone industry is not large, there are many players entering the game, and the enthusiasm for participation is also extremely high. This is inseparable from the catalysis of capital. Michael Moritz, founder of Sequoia Capital, even believes that drones are the trend of the future. After decades, no one is as popular as trains and cars.
It is under such a general trend that UAV manufacturers such as Judy and Zero have chosen to enter the consumer drone market in 2016; on the other hand, the prospect of drones is also optimistic. Since the beginning of 2016, the giants have extended their reach to the field of drones.
On the evening of May 25th, 2016, the Xiaomi drone, which Lei Jun called “蜻蜓â€, was the first show live. The embarrassing thing was that “蜻蜓†suddenly fell in less than two minutes in the night sky. The millet drone is on a consumer-grade route, but there is a “fried machine†incident from the press conference, and the road to development is not smooth. Compared with Xiaomi, Tencent drones can be described as late, and the air-to-air drones jointly released with Zero will enter the consumer-grade drone market with 1999 yuan. The advantage of the air shadow drone is its low price and strong WeChat sharing end. Tencent, which is socially born, also injects powerful social functions into the air shadow.
Jingdong announced that it will use drones to distribute orders from rural areas. In November 2016, JD.com obtained approvals for drones from four provinces and achieved considerable breakthroughs in policy. Moreover, on the day after the Double Eleven, Jingdong had already completed the first single transportation in Shanxi, which is the first time that the drone was actually used in the Double Eleven.
According to IDC, by 2020, China's aerial drone market will grow rapidly with a compound annual growth rate of 86.5%. By then, the market will reach 5.76 million units, with a market size of 25 billion yuan, of which industry application shipments accounted for 33%, and actual production of consumer-grade products was less than 3.86 million units.
The same is IDC data, as of the third quarter of last year, Dajiang's aerial drones accounted for 52% of the market share, zero-degree intelligent control and Parrot followed, but considering that zero-degree intelligence is exposed to layoffs, Parrot also announced the withdrawal In the consumer market, other small drone companies are even more difficult to sustain. Even if they continue to expand, there is not much room left for manufacturers outside of Xinjiang.
But as long as the market has a promising future, there is no shortage of differentiated players. In order to seize this "cake", the companies have come up with innovative products, high-tech and perfect industrial chain. In 2016, the launch of portable drones, Pegasus (J.ME), Snowlight-Manta Smart (S6), TAKE, Tencent (YING), Hover Camera, Companies such as Power Egg, Mavic Pro, and Dobby have introduced compact, lightweight drones.
Therefore, in the case that the battery life has not been significantly improved, some functions are discarded, in exchange for portability and weight, and the low-altitude portable drone with self-timer and part-time aerial photography becomes the key to open the door of the ordinary consumer market. . Another advantage of portable drones is that the price is relatively close to the people.
In the same year, Xiaomi cut into the smart phone market with a thousand yuan machine, pushing the smart phone into the stage of mass consumption. Previously, the cheap and practical function machine was the mainstream product of the masses, and the application-rich smartphone was regarded as non-need to consume. Similarly, the consumer drone market wants to be really big, and there is an urgent need for low-cost, powerful killer products to detonate.
The market of the drones that the capital is ripening is like the subway in the peak period, the cars are so small, and the people who want to get on the bus are growing up. It is worth noting that in the current evolution of technology, existing brands have begun to break through from platform software. For example, the Puzhou UAV in Shenzhen has launched the 1+N mode of the open flight platform, and its folding technology has been brought into its own products by several drone manufacturers. In the view of Puzhou, Dajiang is the undisputed boss in the current drone market, but the law of development of the market will never allow a company to always take the lead.
Many unmanned aircraft companies that are unsustainable, but not closed to bankruptcy, have chosen to transform, and the industry application has become the next growth point of the drone industry after the consumer level, such as plant protection drones for agricultural and forestry plant protection operations. At present, the field of plant protection drones is basically divided by Feifei Technology and Dajiang Agriculture.
The data shows that the per capita cultivated land area of ​​Chinese farmers is only 7 mu. This number is 27 acres in Japan, and 1445 acres in the United States. In the global plant protection aviation operation penetration rate, China's 2% data is also far below the world average of 17%. In the future, with the increase in labor costs, there will be a large market for plant protection unmanned opportunities. However, compared with consumer products, the industry's application of drones tests a company's products, services, operations and other strengths.
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