Nowadays, the 5G concept is no longer unfamiliar. According to the industry's approval: 5G will begin orderly testing in China from 2017 to 2018 and pre-commercial in 2019. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has previously stated that China will launch 5G commercials in 2020.
For the majority of ordinary users, the most intuitive experience brought by 5G will be the great improvement of the speed of the network and the more intelligent and convenient life, and at the same time trigger the birth of more new technologies and new applications. To this end, global telecom operators have begun to flex their muscles, trying to attract users by launching a "wireless traffic package" cake.
At the same time, the remarks that "5G is coming, WiFi will disappear overnight", once again, the actual situation is not the case.
WiFi disappears too early
With the continuous improvement of network services, the introduction of unlimited traffic has become one of the competitive means of telecom operators. Especially in the US market, mainstream operators have introduced unlimited traffic packages to varying degrees, but there are still many restrictions on this package. Consumers are a bit ribbed.
For example, Verizon sets the monthly traffic to 22GB, and the traffic shared to the partner also sets a 10GB limit. After that, the mobile hotspot will be downgraded to the 3G network. In addition, it is not easy to watch high-definition videos, such as T-Mobile and Sprint.
In China, under the pressure of speeding up the network and reducing roaming charges, operators have also taken measures to carry out the "Internet +" transformation measures, among which there are "unlimited traffic" packages, and the three major domestic operators have been in the past year. Launched the "Unlimited Traffic" package.
For example, Beijing Unicom, Shanghai Unicom, Henan Unicom and Guangdong Unicom have also launched an "ice cream package" for unlimited traffic and calls. The monthly fee is 50% off, starting at 199 yuan. These are also limited.
After China Unicom's "Ice Cream Package" uses traffic beyond the package, the mobile phone network speed will drop to the highest 2G mode of only 128Kbps. Although it can be used indefinitely, there is no extra charge, but in fact, the part that exceeds the package has been strictly limited. The Internet experience is very poor.
Mobile and telecom also quickly followed the $46 local unlimited traffic package. Telecom launched the 礴 礴 card in the Beijing area, which can enjoy 2GB of local 4G network speed traffic. After 2GB, local traffic can continue to be used free of charge, but will limit the speed, the maximum speed is 3.1MB (downstream speed is about 384K). Beijing Mobile's unlimited traffic card is free to enjoy local traffic up to 128Kbps after 1.5G package traffic.
It is foreseeable that in the era of upcoming traffic competition, major operators will launch comprehensive competition on “unlimited trafficâ€.
However, the reason why unlimited traffic is difficult to achieve is because wireless frequency resources are limited, unlike fixed networks. Industry experts pointed out that the transmission of wireless data depends on the bandwidth. The frequency resources of each of the three major operators are more precious resources. The current one base station can withstand hundreds of megabytes of traffic, and the number of access users per base station is also If there is a cap, the user has more preferential access, which will affect the Internet speed of all users. Therefore, the network quality of the operator decreases with the increase of the number of users.
From the perspective of network evolution, 5G is really commercialized in 2020, and it is impossible to achieve full and seamless coverage in the initial stage. It requires a relatively long construction period to gradually replace the overlay process, and according to the law, Some 4G LTE will continue to evolve and become an important part of the 5G platform, and 4G, 3G, 2G networks will continue to work after 5G commercial use.
In addition, whether the 5G era can break through the technical bottleneck of wireless frequency scarcity is hard to say, which means that unlimited traffic is truly a reality in the 5G era. And all of these require technological breakthroughs and time grinding.
Under this circumstance, some office buildings or family homes without cell phone signals or mobile phone signal instability still need Wi-Fi to supplement. Therefore, in the 5G era, users still need to do some downloading of video and other traffic in the Wi-Fi environment as much as possible, in order to save higher traffic charges.
So in general, 5G will not exist independently, and WiFi will not disappear so quickly, at least for a short time. In fact, the real impact of the 5G arrival is not to replace the WiFi technology, but based on this commercial service.
Recently, the well-known free bus WiFi provider 16WiFi announced that it will stop its operations in more than 20 cities including Tianjin, as the largest bus WiFi operator in China: the 16WiFi shutdown service cities include Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Foshan , Fuzhou, Tianjin, Changsha, Hangzhou, Haikou, Shaoxing, Kaifeng, only retain Beijing and Kunming as "model cities." This means that more than 200,000 buses will no longer enjoy free WiFi service.
Industry analysts pointed out that the high-speed network promoted by operators is a good thing, but due to the trend of declining market traffic tariffs and the difficulty of obtaining support and subsidies from local governments, WiFi has gradually become a public welfare behavior that relies on enterprises to fight alone, and is bound to face high costs. pressure.
Qiu Chaomin, the founder of 16WiFi, revealed that he has signed 200,000 buses in nearly 70 cities in China, and only about 2,000 yuan per bus hardware equipment (the scrapping period is 3 years). Based on this calculation, the company has invested at least several hundred million yuan in hardware.
Where are the business opportunities under 5G?
Zhang Feng, chief engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, previously said that China's 5G basic R&D test will be conducted from 2016 to 2018, divided into five stages: 5G key technology test, 5G technical solution verification and 5G system verification.
Tencent Technology learned from the 5G promotion team that China will begin the 5G phase II test this year and is expected to be completed by the end of the year. After completion, large-scale test networking will be conducted in 2018.
At present, the three major operators and domestic telecom equipment companies will join hands to steadily advance various tests, including laboratory testing, small-scale field and subsequent scale network testing.
The industry generally believes that once the 5G network is officially commercialized, in addition to bringing the communications industry into a new round of development, it will also drive a number of emerging industries with a scale of trillions. Many market organizations predict that the typical IoT segment of the Internet of Things, big data, cloud computing, smart home, and drones is quite mature at the technical and application levels, but the communication capabilities of existing 4G networks are greatly limited. The development of the above industries.
At the World Mobile Communications Conference (MWC), which ended not long ago, 5G is the biggest hot spot. On the opening day, many mobile communication companies around the world announced that they will jointly support the acceleration of the 5G NR standardization process to promote the large-scale trial and deployment of 5G new airspace as early as 2019.
With the official commercialization of 5G, the network problem will be solved, and the above-mentioned industries will usher in a period of rapid development, and industries such as artificial intelligence and intelligent manufacturing will also rise.
This year's two sessions, 5G, artificial intelligence, etc. have become the key words of government work reports. In fact, the term "artificial intelligence" has been written into the "13th Five-Year Plan", and its development is "promising." The forecast is that the scale of China's artificial intelligence market is less than 30 billion yuan by the end of 2016. By 2018, this scale is expected to exceed 38 billion yuan.
The era of "artificial intelligence +" is coming. "In the next 5 to 10 years, artificial intelligence will be as ubiquitous as water and electricity, and it can enter almost all industries such as education, medical care, finance, transportation, and smart cities," said Liu Qingfeng, chairman of the National People's Congress and chairman of the University of Science and Technology.
These are all based on 5G networks, and their high speed, low latency, and low power consumption have prompted the rapid development of these industries. In addition, the upstream and downstream industries such as chips, electronic components, software, and intelligent hardware will enter the upgrade period, and their venture capital opportunities are equally limited.
It can be seen that the macro industry market under 5G is booming. If you focus on 2B business, who will become a killer application?
Live and short videos are recognized as the next slogan for content entrepreneurship. According to statistics, it is estimated that by the end of 2016, the number of mobile users watching mobile live video in China has reached nearly 340 million, generating a market space of 5.9 billion US dollars.
However, existing networks are most likely to experience unstable and slow network connections during live broadcasts of large events. Good cellular networks are very important for network platforms. Surveys show that more than 50% of anchors have been connected due to poor network connectivity. Forced to give up the live broadcast.
The 5G technology tested the connection speed of 30Gbit, which will be 1000 times that of 4G technology. 5G can provide a peak rate of 10Gb/s to support services such as high-definition video to meet the immersive user experience. Recently, Japanese mobile communication company DOCOMO cooperated with Nokia to successfully complete the real-time transmission of 8K video test using the wireless access technology of 5G mobile communication system.
Brian Daly, an AT&T wireless standards expert, has said that 5G will be 10 to 100 times faster than 4G. The faster 5G speed will also increase the capacity of the network, allowing more users to log in to the network at the same time.
Another example is that thanks to the ultra-fast transmission speed of 5G signals, Samsung has recently demonstrated that 4K ultra-high definition video is wirelessly transmitted to a mobile vehicle. With the development of car drone technology, in-vehicle streaming entertainment will become more and more popular.
With the network capabilities of the 5G platform, content providers can tap into more advanced applications and new business models. 360° video and virtual reality may be 5G killer applications.
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