Li Kaifu, chairman and CEO of Innovation Works, has a positive attitude toward artificial intelligence, but he does not agree that artificial intelligence will fully replace human perception. In his view, in the next 20 years, artificial intelligence cannot independently carry out common-sense reasoning, creation, and planning. They will also not have self-consciousness, emotions, and human desires.
Artificial intelligence is only a human tool
Beijing News: Google’s most recent release of AlphaGo, code-named “AlphaGoZeroâ€, is the biggest difference from previous versions. It is a departure from humans’ existing chess game. It only learns the basic rules of Go, starting from chaos and self-taught. Does this mean that the intelligence of the machine will surpass mankind?
Kai-Fu Lee: In a vertical field, the performance of AI in a given task has been proven to be far beyond humanity, which will have enormous commercial and social value in the next decade. For example, Face++, an investment in innovative workshops, can now recognize 3 million faces simultaneously, as well as Zhirong Group, which invests in innovative workshops. Its products use Qianbao to complete loan approval in 8 seconds. Up to 1.5 million yuan, far more than the bank.
If these AI technologies are transformed into platform-based artificial intelligence toolboxes, the rapid development of artificial intelligence will benefit all humanity and create a lot of wealth. From data-driven AI to sensors that collect new data to fully automated stages represented by unmanned vehicles and robots, it will have a profound impact on our lives.
As for whether AI can replicate human brain, it is more comprehensive than human? I am not optimistic. At least for a long time, this will not happen. From a technical point of view, artificial intelligence is only a human tool and not a form of intelligence. Today's artificial intelligence is based on big data optimization in a narrow area, and it is just a very powerful pattern recognition engine. The performance of these technologies in a given task has been proven to be completely beyond humans, can be used by humans, improve efficiency, and save time for more interesting things. However, at least in the next 20 years, artificial intelligence cannot independently conduct common-sense reasoning, creation, and planning. They will also not have self-consciousness, emotions, and human desires.
Beijing News: So the machine can not replace people's thinking?
Kai-fu Lee: AlphaGoZero's projects and algorithms are indeed very powerful. But do not misunderstand this, think that artificial intelligence is universal, all artificial intelligence can learn from zero without human experience, come to artificial intelligence threat theory. AlphaGoZero can only be applied in a single, simple field, and it is less self-reflective, setting goals, ideas, and self-awareness. Even if it is smart, such as AlphaGoZero, it is the goal of human beings to do digital optimization. This result did not advance the so-called "singularity" theory.
Occupation that meets the 5 second guideline may be replaced
Beijing News: As you mentioned earlier, 50% of people in the next phase may be unemployed, and those who are regarded as smart should quickly solve this problem. What's a good way for you? What should people do to avoid unemployment?
Kai-fu Lee: I have a "five-second rule," that is, a job that was originally performed by people. If we can make decisions on issues that need thinking and decision-making at work within 5 seconds, then this There is a very large amount of work that may be completely or partially replaced by artificial intelligence. I personally predict that people engaged in translation, news reports, assistants, security, sales, customer service, transactions, accounting, drivers, etc., will have about 90% replaced by artificial intelligence in whole or in part in the next 10 years.
So everyone can evaluate their own work. If they are within the "five-second rule," they must make changes quickly. The big direction of change is to go high, deep thinking, and cross-cutting areas. You need to know what the limitations of artificial intelligence are—artificial intelligence is a system that makes objective judgments based on big data in a single field. Then we need to do strategic, cross-domain, deeper thinking. To give a simple example, there should be a writing process in the field of news reports. Some of the sports machines, quarterly financial reports released by the company, stock market analysis and other content machines can be completed. Then you go to do more difficult articles, such as multi-field analysis, some cross-political, economic, and cultural content, it may take 10 years for AI to complete such reports. But like the Pulitzer Prize winner, AI may never write it.
More than once I was asked about the "alternative work of AI," and I was reminding everyone to have two perspectives. On the one hand, AI replaces simple, repetitive tasks, and on the other, new opportunities and opportunities. Only 10% of people in the future may be creative or strategic or top-notch, but that does not mean that the other 90% will have nothing to do. They may move toward service-oriented, best-loved jobs. Even if not all 90% of people are engaged in such service-based work, assuming that only 50% do, there are 20% early retirement, 15% infatuated with VR games, 4% with depression or other mental illness, 1% become a mess . This society is also stable, isn't it?
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